← Yeti Gaming Weekly 4/24/2025
Water FractalTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Weekly 4/24/2025
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.8% | -0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Water Genbu | 6.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Apotheosis Rite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |